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Modelling Probabilistic Causation in Decision Making
April 2009
causalDM
Humans reasoning is based on cause and effect, but these are not enough to draw conclusions due to imperfect information and uncertainty. To solve such problems humans combine causal models and probabilistic information, through probabilistic causation, better known as Causal Bayes Nets. We adopt a logic programming framework and methodology to model our functional description of Causal Bayes Nets, building on its strengths to derive a definition of its semantics. ACORDA is a declarative prospective logic programming which simulates human reasoning in multiple steps into the future. ACORDA is not equipped to deal with probabilistic theory. P-log is a declarative logic programming language used to reason with probabilistic models. Integrated with P-log, ACORDA becomes ready to deal with uncertain problems we face on a daily basis. We show how the integration between ACORDA and P-log was accomplished, and present daily life examples that ACORDA can help people reason about.
In proceedings
Luís Moniz Pereira, Carroline D. P. Kencana Ramli
K. Nakamatsu
Procs. First KES Intl. Symp. on Intelligent Decision Technologies - KES-IDT'09
Engineering Series
Springer
Himeji, Japan
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Luís Moniz Pereira and Carroline D. P. Kencana Ramli, Modelling Probabilistic Causation in Decision Making, in: K. Nakamatsu (eds), Procs. First KES Intl. Symp. on Intelligent Decision Technologies - KES-IDT'09, Engineering Series, Springer, Himeji, Japan, April 2009.
<a href="/people/members/view.php?code=6175f826202ff877fba2ad77784cb9cb" class="author">Luís Moniz Pereira</a> and Carroline D. P. Kencana Ramli, <b>Modelling Probabilistic Causation in Decision Making</b>, in: K. Nakamatsu (eds), <u>Procs. First KES Intl. Symp. on Intelligent Decision Technologies - KES-IDT'09</u>, Engineering Series, <a href="http://www.springer.com" title="Link to external entity..." target="_blank" class="publisher">Springer</a>, Himeji, Japan, April 2009.
@inproceedings {causalDM, author = {Lu\'{\i}s Moniz Pereira and Carroline D. P. Kencana Ramli}, editor = {K. Nakamatsu}, title = {Modelling Probabilistic Causation in Decision Making}, booktitle = {Procs. First KES Intl. Symp. on Intelligent Decision Technologies - KES-IDT'09}, series = {Engineering Series}, publisher = {Springer}, address = {Himeji, Japan}, abstract = {Humans reasoning is based on cause and effect, but these are not enough to draw conclusions due to imperfect information and uncertainty. To solve such problems humans combine causal models and probabilistic information, through probabilistic causation, better known as Causal Bayes Nets. We adopt a logic programming framework and methodology to model our functional description of Causal Bayes Nets, building on its strengths to derive a definition of its semantics. ACORDA is a declarative prospective logic programming which simulates human reasoning in multiple steps into the future. ACORDA is not equipped to deal with probabilistic theory. P-log is a declarative logic programming language used to reason with probabilistic models. Integrated with P-log, ACORDA becomes ready to deal with uncertain problems we face on a daily basis. We show how the integration between ACORDA and P-log was accomplished, and present daily life examples that ACORDA can help people reason about.}, month = {April}, year = {2009}, }
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